Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership works based on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.
