A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
